Oct 13, 2008

Robot in demo mode

Well, the settings of the new version is set for forward test in this week. I still need to check the risks again, since it was changed due to logic changes. The back test of the new version is available here. The results are much better: the P.F changed to 2.31, 77% profit trades, with a little bit smaller drawdown.
I finished fixing the robot application. This application embeds the MBTrading API, and receives orders from the Metatrader expert advisor. I used a DLL I wrote in the past for communication between the two different applications.
Right now two versions are in forward testing: MYP4 and the last one - MYP5.
The robot is triggered from MYP5.

Oct 11, 2008

New version - MYP5

After watching my expert advisor in live, I tried a few ideas to minimize the loss trades. I checked a mechanism of rescue, when the trade is profitable, to set the stop loss to a profitable level. This idea did not achieve better results. Afterwards I tried a few conventional filters, which did not do any better. 
At last,  I had an idea for a filter, with three levels:
1. High risk trades
2. Low risk trades
3. No trading at all
I tried it, and it had better results.
The results are for the period 19/9/07-18/9/08 GBPJPY H1:

ProfitP.FDrawdown (%)Trades
196971.9626.95128
230612.2126.67109
236602.8326.1787

The risk is as it was the same (4% for the first and 6% for the second) with a small modification: the filter determines the risk of the first trade: 4% is considered as the high risk and 2% for the low risk.
What's next? I am going to continue with the third result and make a small risk optimization around that setting since the drawdown settings is changed.

Oct 10, 2008

Daily progress report

I have opened two MBTrading accounts, and linked them together. By the way, they have a great support. I have the skeleton of my robot from a project I made in the past. This skeleton receives commands from the Metatrader, and executes them with MBTrading.
A few enhancements should be made: two accounts instead of one, and to integrate the MBTrading communication module into the expert advisor.
The forward testing continues, and it seems fine. It's almost ten days bug-free, and the back-test matches the forward testing.
I am trying to improve the expert advisor by adding a rescue mechanism for profitable trades that end up at the stop loss. It is in the middle of optimizing, but it seems worse.

Oct 8, 2008

Forward testing - updtae

The expert advisor keeps working, and its results match completely the back test. I am starting preparing to live trading.
What does it mean? Since I do not know a reliable Metatrader broker, which is very important, I am going to work with MBTrading.  This company is actually a gateway, and has no interest in your transactions. 
So, MBTrading offers an API to trade, and I am going to develop a small application that will receive trade signals from the Metatrader, and execute them with MBTrading.
There are a few disadvantages with that method:
1. MBTrading does not allow opposite trades (longs and shorts at the same time), but I may open a sub account for this purpose.
2. The small application requires QA.

Oct 6, 2008

Second week forward testing

The week started with 6 winning trades :)
The most important thing is that it matches the back test of today(until now), and no bugs found.

Oct 3, 2008

First forward test week

This week there were two bugs, which were solved. Due to the forward testing they were discovered. I can't compare the results to the week's back test because of the bugs. Consider the fact that the original platform has a few disconnections per day which affect the results, and forced me to change the broker, I will have to wait to the next weekend to compare the results to the back test hopefully with no bugs, and ready to start live.

Oct 1, 2008

Day's summary

Today the expert advisor traded according to the logic, and won one trade. Since I am going migrate to other broker (Alpari instead of OLD), I check the performance with the Alpari's data and it seems fine. No bug found today, and it is a good sign.